Maui Real Estate Market Trends Year End 2008
Over the course of 2008, we’ve seen downward trends in everything except inventory. There were a few glimmers of hope at the end of the year. December showed an increase in average and median prices for both condos and residential units and an increase in sales for condos. Since it is already mid-January, my peak at numbers says that condos sales and prices are looking good but residential sales are weak.
I’m occasionally asked why my numbers are different than those produced by the Maui Board of Realtors. I look at a 4 month moving trends so that I normalize data and avoid crazy peaks to create a truer picture. On my charts, you’ll see the actual numbers but I usually discuss the trends.
Year in Review for 2008
- Sales are down 40-50%. This has caused inventories to more than double from almost 15 months to over 31 months. While inventory of residential homes is just 16 months (up from 13 months last year), condos are up to 41 months or almost three and half years!
- Condo prices stayed pretty steady through July/August and then sunk resulting in an overall downward trend. Average prices are just 20% lower but median prices are 30% lower. There are more people buying at the lower end of the market where foreclosures have hit the hardest.
- While the average residential price crept up until May, decreases have been seen since then. The average median price ended up 17% lower than a year ago while the median was only 13% lower.
- The number of bank-owned properties continues to rise. Short sales are leveling out as the banks are getting a little faster at managing them. The foreclosure counts are based on auction announcements and schedule dates found in the Maui News.
Oct 2008 Nov 2008 Dec 2008 Jan 2009 Short Sales 199 201 198 Bank-owned 42 44 52 Foreclosures 15 20 37 34
Predictions for 2009
I’m going to go out on limb a bit here. I don’t have a crystal ball and I think most people will admit that we haven’t seen times like this before. This is not a recommendation to take action.
- For condos, I expect that we will have a peak season (Jan-April with sales being reflected until June) with decent sales and relatively steady prices. As summer approaches and the inventories stay high, I predict steady declines of 5-20% in prices through the rest of the year.
- For the residential market, there will be more declines until mid-year when things will start to pick up and continue slow upward growth.
- Much is dependent on the ability of buyers to get financing. The best-ever loan rates and housing stimulus packages should help. Personally, I would not worry that we haven’t hit the bottom of the market if I could get a 4.5% interest loan and could afford the monthly payments. As I’ve stated before, I’d rather have my money in real estate than the stock market right now.
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The following complete reports provide overall Maui data as well as data broken down by area.
View the Snapshot Report I’ve put all the snapshots on a single page!
View the Full Trend Report – 2 years of trend data by area.