Are there areas of Maui that are doing better than others? The answer is YES! Of course “better” in real estate depends which side of the transaction you are on. Since we are talking the “real estate market” we’ll assume that better means more sales and higher prices. I’m looking at how the trend line from November 2009 compares to the trend line for 2010.
And the winner is: Upcountry! Unit sales are up 23%. Median prices are up 4% and active inventory is just 10 months; remember that <6 months of inventory is considered a Seller's Market. And the pending units ratio is 115% indicating that prices will most likely go up.
Other interesting areas to watch include:
- West Maui Condos – Unit Sales are up 48%, prices are down 10% and pending ratio indicates that prices will continue to decline.
- South Maui is pretty stable in unit sales but condo median prices are 17% lower than last year. Residential isn’t quite as bad with just 7% lower and pending indicator showing additional small declines in prices.
- Central Maui Condos had quit selling last year but are now back on track. Central Maui has the lowest inventory with just 8 months for both condos and residential.
If there is a winner, is there a loser? That award would have to go to West Side Residential. Units sold is flat, median prices are 40% lower than last year and inventory is a whopping 25 months! The funny thing is that the pending inventory indicator at 129% indicates prices will go up. West Side has a wide range of properties so one sale can really skew everything.
And that brings up one very important point. Real estate is very local. Anything can happen and each house has a unique story.
Things are relatively stable in the foreclosure market. Bank-owned properties and Short Sales constituted 38% of the units sold. We are seeing fewer auctions scheduled as we head into the holidays but already have many scheduled for January. When I chart foreclosure auctions, this is auctions schedule according to Maui News. I don’t count timeshares but do count AOAO foreclosures. This is where a condo association forecloses in order to try to minimize association losses until the bank gets around to foreclosing; they take over operations and often will rent the unit out. We are seeing more condo associations doing this. Most auctions are still being delayed and many auctions are only published in the Honolulu Advertiser and The Pacific Business News.
People are asking if Bank-Owned (REO’s) and Short Sales are great deals. They can be but buying one is not for everyone. Just like other properties, you need to negotiate to get the best price. Bank negotiators love a bidding war more than anyone. We’ve had REO condos sell for 135% of list price! They are really much like real sellers where some price low hoping for the bidding war and some price high hoping for the best price. Here’s a little table that shows what to expect. The numbers are minimum, average and maximum “Sale Price to List Price” ratio based on sales in last 6 months.
Min / Avg / Max
Min / Avg / Max
|Condo||70% / 98% / 135%||53% / 94% / 111%|
|Residential||53% / 99% / 123%||70% / 96% / 120%|